11/4/10

Relentless

Gazelle
I think I've probably brought this up before, but humans are obsessive and relentless. Other than our intelligence, that's our evolutionary advantage. As predators go, we're slow and weak. How did we survive before we developed weapons? By being the most unrelenting chase predator in the world. We're built to run. Not fast, but for a long time. It's why we sweat.

You spot a gazelle and you chase it. It bounds away easily, getting far enough ahead that it feels safe. And then we're there again, tracking it. It runs, it stops again, we catch up. It runs, it stops again, we catch up. Our weapon isn't stealth or strength or speed, it's endurance. We exhaust our prey. It's in our nature. And the prey's belief that it's far enough away to be safe is its undoing.

I bring this up because Republicans are the gazelle right now. They're way freakin' out there, far enough to forget they're involved in a chase. And we're behind them, relentless.

One thing that's happening right now is that everyone is learning the wrong lessons. Evan Bayh, for example, wrote a New York Times op-ed yesterday arguing that Democrats must embrace centrism (code for "move to the right") in order to remain relevant. This ignores the fact that the "centrist" Democrats took the biggest beating Tuesday.

Likewise, President Obama himself said yesterday, "We were in such a hurry to get things done that we didn't change how things got done," as if people are angry about obscure -- and largely unknown -- parliamentary rules. Paul Krugman dumped all over that one.

Nobody cares about this stuff -- they care about results. Nobody really cares about earmarks; they're just code for spending less (less on somebody else, of course, not me). Nobody cares about civility and bipartisanship, which in practice are code for Democrats giving in to Republican demands. Nobody cares about parliamentary maneuvers: we can argue about the role of health reform in the election, but I bet not one voter in 50 knows or cares that it was passed using reconciliation (as were the sacred Bush tax cuts we must, must retain).


Amen. To be fair, I think Obama probably knows this, but he has to play to the punditry. And that should be the lesson -- that pundits are powerful morons and they must be dealt with. But not by appeasement.

Think about it. Voters are angry with a situation that simply does not exist. There are no "death panels," President Obama is not a communist, and government spending is not why the economy is in trouble. A recent Bloomberg poll found that most people don't know "The Obama administration cut taxes for middle-class Americans, expects to make a profit on the hundreds of billions of dollars spent to rescue Wall Street banks and has overseen an economy that has grown for the past five quarters." So let me say it again; voters are angry about a situation that simply does not exist.

This is also why Republicans offer no solutions. They're the ones who set these lies in motion, so they know there's no solving these non-existent problems. In fact, soon-to-be House speaker John Boehner made it clear that they aren't going to do anything substantial. "While our new majority will serve as your voice in the people's House, we must remember it's the president who sets the agenda for our government," he said -- reactionary still. Oddly, I don't think repealing healthcare reform is an agenda item this president would set. Boehner's basically admitting that they aren't going to take leadership, because then they'd have to solve all the problems they've invented out of thin air. That'd be tough.

If we don't consider the impact of powerful liars like Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, etc., we're dead in the water. If Sarah Palin says one lie for five minutes, we need to spend a week hammering it into pieces. These people have no ideas, these people have no solutions, all they have is fear and hate and lies. And it all spreads like a wildfire unless you crush it out immediately.

We need to be relentless is chasing down those lies. We're good at that. It's in our nature.

-Wisco


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11/3/10

News Roundup for 11/3/10

Baby girl crying
Andrew Breitbart


-Headline of the Day-
"Andrew Breitbart Says ABC 'Humiliated' Him, 'Damaged' His Brand."

Is Andrew Breitbart just the whiniest little prick ever? I like to think so. After ABC News canceled his election night wonk gig, Andy got all sulky. I believe the kids refer to this as "being butthurt."

Apparently, Mediaite caught up to him outside a Phoenix polling place last night and Andy told them he was thinking about suing -- because nothing says "conservative" like filing a frivolous lawsuit. But get this -- he really said (apparently speaking to an ABC News that wasn't there at the time), "You have damaged me, you have damaged my brand, and I'm asking you to walk this lie back. I never exaggerated, I never lied, I never played my role up."

What?!

Dude, you're freakin' famous for being a liar and an exaggerator. That is your brand. (Mediaite, via Talking Points Memo)


-Bailout fever-
Soon-to-be House Speaker Weepy McDrunkenOrange wants to stop these damn bailouts! Here he is in 2008, standing up for fiscal conservatism when it came to the Wall Street bailout.



So, yeah... Gotta give him credit though; most people would skip work if they were that hammered. (YouTube, via Reddit)


-Bonus HotD-
"Blue Dog Coalition Crushed By GOP Wave Election."

Told ya so. Meanwhile, Evan Bayh has an op-ed in the New York Times arguing that surviving dems should be more like the Blue Dogs everyone's rejected, because he's smart like that. (Huffington Post)

OK, So That Didn't Go So Well...

The American people have chosen stupidity. I can't think of any other way to put it. Here in Wisconsin, Russ Feingold fell to a nitwit gigolo. How crushingly depressing. Meanwhile, the unfortunate Harry Reid practically coasts to reelection. I take comfort in the fact that the alternative to Reid was much, much worse. Where do we go from here? Nowhere. Government is now hopelessly broken.


[Sam Stein, Huffington Post:]

It was a historic session -- one of the most productive since the New Deal -- but in the end, it was brief. Four years after taking over Congress with the first female Speaker of the House of Representatives, Democrats lost control of the chamber in a devastating, wipeout election.

And as the political practitioners and election pundits take stock of what happened, perhaps the one conclusion all sides agree with is this: if government seemed stalemated and futile before, the next two years will bring new meaning to deadlocked.



Nice work, American voter. Way to screw yourself.

"There are going to be confrontations, subpoenas, demands that people testify, efforts to undermine the things the president has done," the the American Enterprise Institute's Norm Ornstein told Stein. "The question is, if you get a shutdown of the government or disruption of government, do you get the public backlash? And then, do you get Republicans reacting the way [former Speaker Newt] Gingrich did, when he and his colleagues said, 'Oops, if we want to win a second majority we have to work with the president.' If that is what [incoming GOP leader John] Boehner decides to do, does he have the clout to get his colleagues to do that? I'm skeptical."

Still, I think it's important to point out that this isn't over. It's never over. There are no decisive victories in democracy and all gains are temporary. The thing to do, from the activist perspective, is to get right back to work. I know I will. And, if Republicans are all problems and no solutions -- as pretty much everyone predicts -- it just makes it that much easier. The message from this day forward should be a combination of "we told you so" and "have Republicans fixed the economy yet?" They should own the economy now.

So keep up the good work. America has never needed you more. Russ Feingold was outspent by almost 4:1, but money was useless elsewhere. Meg Whitman failed to buy the California governorship. Carly Fiorina's cash didn't get her anywhere either. Wrestling mogul Linda McMahon likewise found that a Connecticut senate seat was not for sale. We can do this.

Fight harder, fight smarter, and know your cause is just. I know you can do this, because I've seen you do it before.

-Wisco


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11/1/10

News Roundup for 11/1/10

Costumed rally-goers
These people are sane


-Headline of the Day-
"Jon Stewart Rally Attracts Estimated 215,000."

OK, now that's impressive. CBS News hired the same firm, AirPhotosLive.com, to estimate crowd size that they hired for the big Beck rally. The result? Beck's 87,000 is 40% of what turned out for the Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear. If you're interested in the complex methodolgy used to determine the crowd sizes, CBS posted that very unexciting information here.

In fact, the crowd was so large that local DC news site TBD reported, "Massive turnout for Saturday's rally quickly overwhelmed the Mall, forcing thousands of people into nearby streets and eventually, just giving up and leaving." This turned out to be a boon for local bars, where the live feed was no doubt running on plenty of TVs.

"The normally spacious bar at Clyde's quickly became standing room only. A line formed on the sidewalk to get inside the Iron Horse Tap Room," TBD says. "By 2 p.m., the wait for a table for four at Carmine's was at least an hour."

Watching the rally from a block or two away over a few cold ones and a plate of chicken wings? Now that's sanity. (CBS News)


-"I have a memory"-
From the "people don't vote for things, people vote against things" file and an organization, the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, who get it.



Seriously great. Seriously. (YouTube)


-Bonus HotD-
"O'Donnell accuses station of 'forgetting' to air her campaign ads."

Wow. Christine O'Donnell shot a half-hour closing argument for the elections and it never aired. Why? According to Christine, "We are told channel 28 'forgot' to air it...both times... even though we paid for the time slot last week." This seemed kind of unlikely, because it's not like TV stations scratch out their schedules on an Etch-A-Sketch or something -- "Oh crap, we forgot to run Two and a Half Men again! Who bumped this thing?" They've got computers and everything.

Turns out, it was Christine who forgot -- to pay.

You guys in Delaware are really dodging a bullet on this one. I'm sure that TV spot would've totally clinched the election for her. (The Hill)

Get Out The Vote

Vote button
This is my last long form post before election day and my last report on phonebanking for Wisconsin Democrats. Right now, I'm watching Rep. Chris Van Hollen, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, defend his prediction that dems will retain their majority in the House of Representatives on MSNBC. But Van Hollen is engaging in punditry -- there's little evidence to back up his claim, other than stronger than normal turnout among Democrats in early voting. But that higher early turnout is to be expected. News that the GOP-supporting business groups had planned a $75 million dark money push in the final days of the campaign caused Democrats to push early voting -- i.e., "vote now, before a wave of attack ads change your mind." Because of this last-minute push, Republicans didn't want people to vote early -- or, at least, not as badly as they might in another cycle. Still, it might make the difference in many races.

Gallup reports that "52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions." And everyone agrees that turnout is the key. The danger of lower turnout here is not only a Democratic concern; some Republicans may be so convinced of the inevitability of the "big Republican wave" that they think they needn't bother. Call it the "Tortoise and the Hare scenario." This also may make a difference.

Yesterday, I spent a couple hours on the phone at the teachers' union hall here in Madison. My contacts were mostly positive and the campaign is focusing on Get Out The Vote efforts. If turnout is the key, then turnout is the top job. Democrats seem to feel that a 4% increase in projected turnout in key districts will be enough to pull it out for both incumbent Senator Russ Feingold and gubernatorial hopeful Tom Barrett. My guess on which districts these are: Madison and Milwaukee. Wisconsin Democrats have a larger team of volunteers than in any other state, thanks in part to efforts by MoveOn.org.

For his part, Feingold's spirits are being buoyed by a wave of newspaper endorsements -- specifically, from conservative papers concerned by opponent Ron Johnson's refusal (or inability) to discuss specifics. The Green Bay Press-Gazette, the Oshkosh Northwestern, and Madison's Wisconsin State Journal (yes, the editorial page of the city's only print daily is wildly out of step with this progressive community -- they also endorsed doomed house candidate Chad Lee) have all given their support to Russ. The value of newspaper endorsements is questionable at best, but in the cases of the Press-Gazette and Northwestern, they have to give readers pause -- these papers simply do not endorse Democratic candidates. And it's not that Feingold is so good that wins their endorsements, but that Ron Johnson is so bad. Time for me to trot out my old standby again: people don't vote for things, they vote against things. "Ron Johnson sucks" is a stronger incentive than "we love Russ."

In any case, the mood in that union hall was upbeat. You don't get the feeling that the staffers are just going through the motions and hoping for the best, which is what you'd expect if the numbers showed this thing as being hopeless. That 4% number seems to be accurate. And Wisconsin Democrats' GOTV effort is massive. They'd filled the room when I was there, all tables manned, with some volunteers sitting on chairs against the walls, calling numbers from a list in their lap (glad I got there early). Callers are happy, contacts are excited -- this doesn't seem nearly as gloomy as the polling would suggest. Meanwhile, Johnson's making robocalls. I have yet to hear from a Republican volunteer -- although, to be fair, this district may not be worth the effort for them.

One thing that strikes me about GOTV is Wisconsin that I think is worth mentioning; we have an open primary. That means you don't have to register as a member of a party to vote. In the primary, you show up and vote in whichever party's primary strikes your fancy that cycle, which means that Wisconsin is wildly Independent on paper. And it also means that voter registration rolls don't include party affiliation. You have no idea whether you're calling a Democrat, Republican, or swing voter. So what you do is call districts that tend to vote the way you're hoping voters will go this time. So a Johnson call in this district would probably be made from a GOP donor list and, since those lists are proprietary, that call would be unlikely to be made by a volunteer -- you'd get that call from a temp at a fundraising firm. Just a parenthetical observation that was too long for parentheses.

In the end, it's all about people at the polls. Go vote and don't go alone. If you can, volunteer to knock doors or make calls. There's still time before election day and GOTV on election day makes a difference -- I plan to do one last shift on Tuesday. And, remember, there are going to be referenda on that ballot as well. Do a little research to learn about those as well. They made not get a lot of coverage, but they're important.

Either way, just vote.

-Wisco


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